Catch Probability
Catch Rate Analysis
How Catch Rates Work in BDSP
The catch rate formula in Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl is based on several factors:
- Pokémon Species: Each Pokémon has a base catch rate between 3-255
- HP: Lower HP increases catch chance
- Poké Ball: Different balls have catch rate modifiers
- Status Conditions: Sleep and freeze provide the highest bonus
The formula calculates a “catch value” which determines if the Pokémon is caught and how many times the Poké Ball shakes.
This calculator uses the actual game mechanics to provide accurate probability estimates.
In Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl (BDSP), successfully catching Pokémon is a fundamental aspect of gameplay. Understanding the complex mechanics behind catch rates can significantly improve your efficiency as a trainer. This comprehensive guide explores the BDSP catch rate formula, factors affecting capture success, and strategies to maximize your chances.
Whether you’re hunting for Shinies, completing your Pokédex, or trying to capture legendary Pokémon, knowing how the game calculates catch probability will give you a distinct advantage. We’ll break down the mathematical formulas, examine each variable’s impact, and provide practical tips based on the game’s mechanics.
Understanding Catch Rates in BDSP
Every Pokémon species has an inherent catch rate value ranging from 3 to 255. This base value represents how easily a Pokémon can be caught under normal conditions. Legendary Pokémon typically have very low catch rates (often 3), while common Pokémon have higher values.
The actual capture probability isn’t simply the catch rate percentage. Instead, the game uses a complex formula that considers multiple factors including:
- Pokémon’s current and maximum HP
- Status conditions
- Type of Poké Ball used
- Whether it’s day or night
- If the Pokémon is surfing or fishing
The game processes these variables through a specific algorithm to determine if a capture will be successful. Understanding this process allows trainers to make strategic decisions during encounters.
The Catch Rate Formula
The core capture mechanics in BDSP follow the same formula established in earlier Pokémon games, with some modifications. The formula calculates a “catch value” that determines success probability.
If the catch value is 255 or greater, the capture is guaranteed. Otherwise, the game generates a random number between 0 and 255 and compares it to the catch value. If the random number is less than or equal to the catch value, the Pokémon is caught.
Breaking Down the Formula Components
HP Factor
The HP component ((3 × Max HP – 2 × Current HP) ÷ (3 × Max HP)) emphasizes the importance of reducing a Pokémon’s HP. Lower current HP significantly increases capture chances. At 1 HP, this factor reaches its maximum value of approximately 1.
Catch Rate
Each Pokémon species has a base catch rate between 3-255. For example, Caterpie has a catch rate of 255 (easiest), while Mewtwo has 3 (hardest). These values can be found in the game’s code or various online databases.
Ball Modifier
Different Poké Balls provide multipliers to the catch rate. Standard Poké Balls have a modifier of 1x, while specialized balls like Ultra Balls offer 2x. Some balls have situational modifiers that activate under specific conditions.
Status Modifier
Inflicting status conditions dramatically improves capture rates. Sleep and freeze provide a 2.5x multiplier, while poison, paralysis, and burn offer 1.5x. This makes status moves invaluable when catching difficult Pokémon.
Poké Ball Effectiveness
Choosing the right Poké Ball for the situation is crucial for capture success. BDSP features various specialized Poké Balls with different catch rate modifiers and situational bonuses.
Standard Poké Balls
- Poké Ball: Standard 1x modifier
- Great Ball: 1.5x modifier
- Ultra Ball: 2x modifier – your go-to for difficult captures
Specialized Poké Balls
These balls provide situational bonuses that can dramatically increase catch rates when their conditions are met:
- Timer Ball: Effectiveness increases with battle duration (max 4x after 30 turns)
- Quick Ball: 5x modifier if used on the first turn
- Dusk Ball: 3.5x modifier in caves or at night
- Repeat Ball: 3.5x modifier if Pokémon is already registered in Pokédex
- Net Ball: 3.5x modifier against Bug or Water-type Pokémon
Understanding when to use each specialized ball can make the difference between success and failure, especially when dealing with legendary Pokémon with extremely low base catch rates.
Status Conditions Impact
Inflicting status conditions is one of the most effective ways to increase capture probability. The multiplier varies depending on the specific condition:
Optimal Status Conditions
Sleep and freeze provide the highest capture bonus (2.5x) but each has practical considerations:
- Sleep: Provides 2.5x multiplier but Pokémon may wake up randomly
- Freeze: Also 2.5x multiplier but rare and unpredictable to inflict
- Paralysis: 1.5x multiplier and reduces speed, making it easier to manage the battle
- Poison/Burn: 1.5x multiplier but damages Pokémon each turn, risking KO
For most capture scenarios, paralysis offers the best balance between effectiveness and reliability. Sleep is preferable for extremely difficult captures if you can maintain the condition.
Strategic Status Application
When planning to capture a valuable Pokémon, consider bringing a Pokémon with access to:
- Thunder Wave or Stun Spore for paralysis
- Hypnosis or Spore for sleep (Spore has 100% accuracy but only available on certain Pokémon)
- False Swipe to reduce HP to 1 without causing fainting
- Moves that don’t inflict unwanted status conditions or weather effects
HP Management Strategies
The HP factor in the catch formula makes reducing a Pokémon’s HP crucial for successful captures. The relationship isn’t linear – the greatest improvements come when HP is very low.
The False Swipe Technique
False Swipe is a move that always leaves the target with at least 1 HP, making it invaluable for capture preparation. Several Pokémon can learn this move, including:
- Scyther/Scizor
- Breloom
- Gallade
- Parasect
When building a dedicated catching Pokémon, consider one that can learn both False Swipe and a reliable status move.
Dealing with Ghost-types
Ghost-type Pokémon present a unique challenge as they’re immune to False Swipe (a Normal-type move). Alternative strategies include:
- Using moves that calculate damage precisely
- Soak move (changes target to Water-type) followed by False Swipe
- Odor Sleuth or Foresight to enable Normal-type moves to hit Ghosts
- Simply using very careful damage calculation with other moves
For legendary Ghost-types like Giratina, the Soak strategy can be particularly effective when combined with status conditions.
Advanced Capture Techniques
Beyond the basic formula, several advanced techniques and game mechanics can further improve your capture success rates in specific situations.
Catching Chain Bonuses
While not as pronounced as in Pokémon Legends: Arceus, BDSP does feature some chain mechanics that can improve catch rates:
- Catching the same species repeatedly may provide slight catch rate improvements
- Using the Poké Radar creates chains that increase shiny odds and potentially catch rates
- Completing Pokédex entries for a species may unlock minor catch bonuses
Time-Based Strategies
Certain Poké Balls and game mechanics are affected by the time of day:
- Dusk Balls are more effective at night or in caves (3.5x)
- Some Pokémon have different catch rates based on time of day
- Timer Balls become more effective as battle length increases (max 4x at 30+ turns)
For particularly difficult captures, consider starting the encounter at night to benefit from Dusk Ball effectiveness, or deliberately extending the battle to maximize Timer Ball potential.
Type-Matching Balls
Several specialized Poké Balls provide bonuses when used on Pokémon of specific types:
- Net Ball: 3.5x against Bug and Water types
- Dive Ball: 3.5x when surfing or fishing (effectively for Water types)
- Nest Ball: Better performance against lower-level Pokémon
Knowing a Pokémon’s type before encounter allows you to prepare the most effective Poké Ball for the situation.
Legendary Pokémon Strategies
Legendary Pokémon in BDSP present the ultimate capture challenge with their extremely low base catch rates (typically 3). Success requires careful preparation and execution.
Preparation is Key
Before engaging a legendary Pokémon, ensure you have:
- A team with a dedicated catcher Pokémon (False Swipe + status move)
- Plenty of Ultra Balls (or situationally appropriate specialty balls)
- Timer Balls for extended battles
- Status healing items for your team
- A strategy to deal with the legendary’s specific moves and abilities
The Optimal Capture Sequence
For best results with legendary Pokémon, follow this sequence:
- Use Quick Ball on first turn (5x modifier)
- If Quick Ball fails, reduce HP to minimal levels with False Swipe
- Inflict status condition (preferably sleep or paralysis)
- Use Dusk Balls if in cave or at night (3.5x)
- As battle progresses, switch to Timer Balls (increasing to 4x)
- Use Ultra Balls as general-purpose option when others aren’t optimal
This multi-ball strategy maximizes your chances throughout the encounter by leveraging different balls at their most effective moments.
Patience and Persistence
Even with optimal preparation, catching legendaries can take numerous attempts due to their extremely low base catch rates. Key tips:
- Don’t waste specialty balls early when their conditions aren’t met
- Keep the status condition active throughout the encounter
- Be prepared for a long battle – bring Pokémon with high PP moves
- Consider using a Pokémon with the Harvest ability and Skill Swap to prevent the legendary from struggling to death
Mathematical Analysis of Catch Probabilities
For those interested in the precise mathematics behind catch rates, this section provides a deeper dive into the probability calculations.
The Complete Formula
The full capture probability formula in BDSP is:
Where:
M = Pokémon’s maximum HP
H = Pokémon’s current HP
C = Pokémon’s base catch rate
B = Ball modifier
S = Status modifier
If P ≥ 255, capture is guaranteed. Otherwise, the game generates a random number R between 0-255. If R ≤ P, capture succeeds.
Probability Calculation Example
Let’s calculate the capture probability for a legendary Pokémon with:
- Max HP (M) = 150
- Current HP (H) = 1 (after False Swipe)
- Base catch rate (C) = 3
- Using Ultra Ball (B = 2)
- Paralyzed (S = 1.5)
P = [((450 – 2) × 6) / 450] × 1.5
P = [(448 × 6) / 450] × 1.5
P = [2688 / 450] × 1.5
P = 5.973 × 1.5
P = 8.96
Since P (8.96) < 255, capture isn't guaranteed. The probability becomes approximately 8.96/256 ≈ 3.5% per ball throw.
This example illustrates why legendary captures require numerous attempts even under optimal conditions.
Conclusion
Mastering catch rates in Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl requires understanding the complex interplay between multiple game mechanics. By leveraging the catch rate formula, strategically using Poké Balls, managing HP effectively, and applying status conditions, trainers can significantly improve their capture success rates.
Key takeaways for successful Pokémon capturing:
- Always reduce the target’s HP as much as possible, ideally to 1 using False Swipe
- Inflict status conditions, with sleep or paralysis being most effective
- Choose Poké Balls based on the situation rather than defaulting to Ultra Balls
- For legendary Pokémon, prepare for extended battles and use a multi-ball strategy
- Understand that even with optimal conditions, low catch rate Pokémon require patience
While the mathematics behind catch rates may seem complex, the practical application boils down to a simple formula: minimal HP + status condition + appropriate ball = maximum capture probability. By applying these principles, you’ll spend less time struggling with captures and more time enjoying your completed Pokédex.
Remember that RNG (random number generation) always plays a role in Pokémon captures. Even with a 99% capture probability, there’s still a small chance of failure. Persistence and preparation are ultimately the most important factors in successful Pokémon capturing.
Frequently Asked Questions
For general capturing, Ultra Balls provide the most consistent performance with their 2x catch rate modifier. However, situationally appropriate balls like Dusk Balls (at night or in caves) or Quick Balls (first turn) can be more effective when their conditions are met.
No, critical captures don’t guarantee success. They simplify the capture check to a single random number generation instead of three, which increases the probability of success but doesn’t make it 100%. The catch rate formula still applies, and difficult Pokémon can still break free even from critical captures.
The Catch Charm, obtained by completing the National Pokédex, increases the likelihood of critical captures. It doesn’t directly increase base catch rates but makes critical captures more frequent, which indirectly improves overall capture success rates.
Pokémon with very low base catch rates (like most legendaries) have high break-out probabilities even under optimal conditions. When you see immediate breakouts, it indicates the random number generated was higher than your calculated catch value, which is common for low catch rate Pokémon.
Level doesn’t directly appear in the catch rate formula. However, higher-level Pokémon typically have higher HP stats, which indirectly affects capture probability through the HP factor in the formula. Higher HP makes the ((3M-2H)/(3M)) portion of the formula less favorable when the Pokémon isn’t at low HP.
Yes, Master Balls bypass the catch rate formula entirely and have a 100% success rate on any Pokémon that can be caught. They should be reserved for extremely difficult captures like roaming legendaries or Shiny Pokémon that might otherwise escape.
No, gender has no effect on catch rates in BDSP. The formula only considers HP, base catch rate, ball modifier, and status conditions.
No, base catch rate is an inherent property of each Pokémon species and cannot be permanently changed. However, you can effectively increase catch probability through the modifiers in the formula (HP reduction, status conditions, and appropriate Poké Balls).
Timer Balls only reach their maximum 4x modifier after 30 turns. In shorter battles, Ultra Balls (2x) may be more effective. Always check how many turns have passed before switching to Timer Balls for optimal performance.
No, move types don’t directly affect catch rates. However, super-effective moves might reduce HP more quickly but also risk knocking out the Pokémon. It’s better to use False Swipe or carefully controlled damage to reach 1 HP safely.

